Bulls, Bears and Colts: Classic Case of Being Fooled
Superbowls, like presidential elections, receive so much attention that they are overanalyzed and associated with any number of outcomes that are totally random. In this case, there is the statistic that people actually spend time discussing which uses the Superbowl as a stock market forecaster.
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Written by randomfool on January 22nd, 2007 with
1 comment.
Read more articles on General Folly and Chicago Bears and NFL and Randomness and Sports.
On the day after the Chicago Bears qualified for the Superbowl for the first time in 21 years, I of course spent some time reading blog entries and analysis of yesterday’s games and the Superbowl on February 4th (not to mention ruling out any chance that I might have had to go to the game given the ridiculous cost of a ticket). Superbowls, like presidential elections, receive so much attention that they are terribly overanalyzed and the results are often associated with any number of outcomes that are totally random. In this case, there is the statistic that people actually spend time discussing which uses the Superbowl as a stock market forecaster. Apparently, when an old NFL team, like the Bears and the Colts, wins the Superbowl, the stock market increases for that year 78% of the time. When two old NFL teams face off (which has happened seven times), the stock market increases 100% of the time.
Now, obviously, there is no correlation between the Superbowl teams or the outcome of the Superbowl and the stock market. The correlation is clearly 100% random and this is a classic case of looking at two totally unrelated events and backfilling a story to the perceived patterns. The thing is, I can’t tell sometimes whether people who are explaining or advocating these kinds of theories are being sarcastic (like I am) or if they actually believe that there is a correlation.
Written by randomfool on January 22nd, 2007 with
1 comment.
Read more articles on General Folly and Chicago Bears and NFL and Randomness and Sports.
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#1. December 25th, 2007, at 7:23 AM.
As I understand it, nobody seriously believes there is any real correlation between the superbowl and the stock market behaviour - it is meant sarcastically.